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Estimates are derived by T2C from disclosed figures. Switch them off to see only what companies have published.
Focus mode Supporting context hidden. Figures, their basis, confidence and sources are unchanged — nothing that qualifies a number is hidden.

Edge Lab

See the capacity, timing, contracts and financing that a valuation appears to require — and how much of it the evidence already supports.

3 companies modelled Seeded and reproducible
Moves every undelivered tranche earlier or later, in quarters.
Advanced assumptions Every input, with where it comes from

Which companies can be modelled

And why the others cannot
Modelled IREN
IREN Limited

Two contracts disclose both value and term, so revenue per MW is derived rather than assumed.

Modelled WULF
TeraWulf

The Anthropic lease discloses value, megawatts and a 20-year initial term.

Modelled APLD
Applied Digital

All five campus leases disclose value, megawatts and a 15-year initial term.

Not modelled CRWV
CoreWeave

CoreWeave reports customer commitments as a dollar backlog with no megawatt or term breakdown, so a per-MW revenue rate cannot be derived from disclosure.

Not modelled NBIS
Nebius Group

The Meta agreement discloses dollars but not megawatts, and part of the headline value is conditional. No rate can be derived.

Not modelled KEEL
Keel Infrastructure

Keel has no announced customer lease, so there is no contract from which to derive a rate.

A company is modelled only where a contract discloses value, megawatts and term together, so the revenue rate is arithmetic rather than assumption. No peer average is ever substituted.

Market odds

Price probability, not valuation

What is the modelled chance of reaching a target by a date?

Advanced assumptionsVolatility, drift and price source

Method. Close-to-close log-return standard deviation on Adjusted daily closes, annualised by sqrt(252) trading days. When historical closes are unavailable from the data provider, the calculator falls back to a per-ticker typical volatility and says so beside the input. A fallback is never presented as a measured figure. Lognormal random walk, no jumps. Not options-implied and not advice.